In a defiant appearance on CBS’s Face the Nation Sunday morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivered an unequivocal message to the American people: the U.S. economy will finish 2025 with real GDP growth of 3%, meeting one of the cornerstone targets of President Trump’s second-term economic agenda.
“The American economy is roaring,” Bessent declared. “We’ve already seen quarters north of 4% growth this year, and even with the Democrats’ reckless government shutdown dragging us down by an estimated 1.5 percentage points, we’re still going to hit 3% for the full year.”
The statement represents the clearest public confirmation yet that the administration remains committed to its signature “3-3-3” plan: 3% sustained annual GDP growth, a federal deficit reduced to 3% of GDP, and domestic oil production increased by 3 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.
Resilience in the Face of Political Turbulence
Bessent’s optimism comes just days after a bitter 11-day government shutdown orchestrated by Senate Democrats, which economists warned could shave as much as 0.4 percentage points off Q4 growth alone. The Treasury Secretary brushed aside those concerns, pointing to surging business investment, record energy production, and the lingering boost from the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” tax-and-spending package signed into law earlier this year.
“Every time the pessimists said we couldn’t do it, the American people proved them wrong,” he said. “Deregulation is unleashing animal spirits, trade deals are bringing manufacturing home, and lower taxes are putting more money in workers’ pockets. That’s the formula.”
Inflation, Tariffs, and the Affordability Debate
Pressed on rising consumer prices — including a viral moment last week when a toy-company CEO revealed some items had jumped from $25 to $40 because of tariffs and supply-chain pressures — Bessent pushed back firmly.
“Year-over-year inflation is stable, real wages are up roughly 1%, and Americans’ paychecks are going further than they were four years ago,” he said. “Affordability isn’t just about the price at the register; it’s about how much you take home. And take-home pay is rising.”
He added that the administration’s tariff strategy is already delivering strategic wins, citing new semiconductor and critical-minerals agreements with allied nations that will reduce long-term costs.
An Ambitious Target in a Skeptical World
Not everyone is convinced the 3% finish line is assured.
Independent forecasts have been more cautious:
- The Congressional Budget Office still projects 2.5% growth for calendar year 2025.
- The Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDPNow model currently estimates Q4 annualized growth at 2.3%.
- Wall Street consensus (Bloomberg survey, December 5) sits at 2.6%.
Hitting exactly 3% would therefore require a significant Q4 acceleration — something administration officials insist is already in motion thanks to holiday spending, energy-sector momentum, and a rebound in housing starts following the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle.
Looking to 2026 and Beyond
Bessent was even more bullish on the year ahead, declaring that “2026 will be a year of strong, noninflationary growth” as the full effects of deregulation, energy dominance, and pro-family tax policies kick in.
“We’ve set the table,” he said. “No recession. No excuses. Just results.”
Markets appeared to agree. S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% and the 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher in after-hours trading following the interview, signaling investor confidence in the administration’s growth narrative.
Whether Bessent’s 3% call proves prophetic or overly optimistic will be settled in the coming weeks when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its third estimate of Q4 GDP in late January. For now, the Treasury Secretary has thrown down the gauntlet: the Trump economic boom, he insists, is very much alive.