In the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, few tokens inspire as much fervent loyalty—and equally passionate frustration—as XRP, the digital asset tied to Ripple’s cross-border payment network. Over the last month, from October 23 to November 23, 2025, XRP has endured a brutal decline, shedding approximately 40% of its value. What started the month trading around $3.20 has spiraled down to roughly $1.93 as of today, erasing billions in market capitalization and leaving even die-hard “XRP Army” members questioning their resolve.
This isn’t just a random dip; it’s a confluence of macroeconomic headwinds, technical breakdowns, and behavioral shifts among investors. Despite positive developments like the launch of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the price has defied expectations, plunging deeper into bear territory. In this article, we’ll unpack the key drivers behind XRP’s month-long slide, drawing on market data, expert analysis, and on-chain insights to separate hype from harsh reality.
The Broader Crypto Market Meltdown: When Bitcoin Sneezes, XRP Catches a Cold
XRP doesn’t exist in a vacuum—it’s tethered to the fortunes of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which have dominated the narrative in 2025’s bull run. October began with cautious optimism following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut signals, but by mid-month, cracks appeared. Bitcoin, after flirting with $110,000 highs, suffered a “profit-booking-led pullback” that wiped out all its 2025 gains, dropping to $85,000 by late November. ETH followed suit, tumbling below $2,800.
This cascade effect hit XRP hard. As BTC breached key supports like $100,000 on November 15, altcoins like XRP amplified the downside, falling 6-9% in single sessions. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a barometer of market sentiment, plunged from 62 in early October to a fearful 36 by November 3, signaling widespread panic selling. Reports from Challenger, Gray & Christmas highlighted over 153,000 U.S. private-sector layoffs in October, while the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index hit its lowest since 2022—macro triggers that spooked risk assets like crypto.
XRP’s correlation with BTC has never been stronger, exacerbated by the “Yen carry trade unwind.” Japan’s weakening yen forced a $20 trillion global liquidity squeeze, triggering forced liquidations across risk markets. As one analyst noted on X, “BTC dominance going down… but alts might have a big upside for bull market” once the dust settles—yet for now, XRP is paying the price of association.
Technical Breakdowns: From Bullish Patterns to Death Crosses
Zooming into XRP’s chart paints a grim picture of structural weakness. October opened with XRP consolidating in a symmetrical triangle, a neutral pattern hinting at a potential breakout. But instead of resolving upward, it broke down from a descending triangle in late October, slicing through the $2.70 support level and invalidating bullish setups.
By November 19, XRP confirmed a “death cross”—its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossing below the 200-day EMA—a bearish signal that has historically preceded 50%+ drawdowns. The token breached the critical $2.20 Fibonacci support on November 18, trading under all major moving averages with a daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 41.48 (neutral but trending oversold). MACD histograms flashed bearish divergence, and on-chain metrics like Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) hit a yearly low of 0.32 on November 16, entering the “fear/anxiety zone” that often marks bottoms—but not recoveries yet.
Historical parallels are sobering: XRP’s 13.88% monthly drop in November mirrors February 2025’s slump, and its current position 40% below July’s $3.02 peak echoes the 95% crash post-2018 highs. Analysts warn of further downside to $1.90 (June lows), $1.61 (April lows), or even $1.25—a 50% plunge from current levels—unless it reclaims $2.38 to flip bullish. As one trader quipped on X, “XRP sliding into danger zone as investor interest continues to wane.”
Whale Games and Profit-Taking: The Big Players Cash Out
Behind the charts, on-chain data reveals a tale of supply dynamics gone awry. Long-term holders (LTHs), who control the bulk of XRP’s 100 billion token supply, have been aggressive sellers. The Hodl Waves metric shows short-term holders (1-3 months) slashing their supply share from 12.98% in early October to 7.85% by month’s end—a 39.5% exodus. LTH net outflows surged 2,647% in two weeks, from -3.28 million XRP on October 19 to -90.14 million by October 30.
Whales amplified the pain: Nearly 200 million XRP ($400 million) dumped in 48 hours around November 16, per on-chain trackers like Lookonchain. Exchange inflows hit 1.4 billion XRP in November as prices tested $2.20, with only 58.5% of holders in profit—the lowest since 2024. Mid-tier whales (1-10 million XRP) were net sellers throughout October, while top whales accumulated selectively but not enough to stem the tide.
This selling pressure overwhelmed retail accumulation. Despite 149 million XRP ($336 million) withdrawn from exchanges in a single 24-hour span on November 14—signaling big-player self-custody ahead of catalysts— the net effect was a supply shock in reverse: more tokens flooding the market via whale dumps. As X user @Your_CryptoDog noted, “Whales dumping 190M XRP in 48 hours $400M” amid Fed uncertainty.
The ETF Paradox: Hype Meets Reality
November’s marquee event was the U.S. debut of spot XRP ETFs, a milestone post-SEC settlement in August 2025 confirming XRP’s non-security status for secondary trading. Canary Capital’s XRPC launched on November 13 with a record $59 million first-day volume and $268 million in cumulative inflows by November 15—the strongest among 900+ ETF debuts in 2025. Bitwise’s XRP followed, ranking third in yearly volume, with Franklin Templeton and Grayscale’s funds slated for November 24.
Yet, XRP fell 11% from November 13 highs, trading at $2.14 mid-month before further erosion. Why? ETF inflows, while impressive, are dwarfed by XRP’s massive supply—tens of millions can’t counterbalance whale sales or BTC’s drag. Issuers like Canary source assets via over-the-counter desks, not public exchanges, delaying spot price impacts. As analyst Marzella explained, “Inflows worth tens or even hundreds of millions are still too small to overpower market selling pressure.” Echoing Bitcoin’s 2024 ETF launch, which saw muted initial reactions before a rally, experts urge patience: Effects often lag by weeks.
Ripple’s fundamentals remain a bright spot—expanding RippleNet adoption and ISO 20022 activation on November 22—but short-term sentiment is fragile. Banks can use Ripple’s network without XRP (or the new RLUSD stablecoin), diluting token utility and capping upside.
Looking Ahead: Capitulation or Catalyst?
XRP’s monthly bloodbath—down 12% in October alone, accelerating to 22% YTD losses—stems from a perfect storm: macro fears, technical failures, whale exits, and ETF growing pains. Only 41.5% of supply is underwater, hinting at capitulation near, but with BTC at seven-month lows and Fed rate cut “no guarantees,” more pain looms to $1.75-$2.00.
Bullish counterpoints persist: Historical November gains average +88%, whales accumulated 900 million XRP ($1.9 billion) in August dips, and pending ETFs (15 applications) could inject $1.2 billion. ISO 20022’s rollout tomorrow may boost Ripple’s interoperability edge. As one X post warned, “XRP will replace absolutely nothing? Wait for the supply shortage.”
For investors, this dip is a Darwinian test: Scale out gradually, preserve capital, and eye $2.55 support for rebounds. XRP’s long-term story—regulatory clarity, institutional inflows—remains intact, but the path to $5+ by year-end demands navigating this abyss. In crypto, as in life, the biggest wins often follow the deepest valleys. Will XRP rise from these ashes? History says yes—but only for those who endure.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk; always DYOR.